"Ю Би Эс Банк" понижает оценки акций продуктовых сетей, но продавать рекомендует лишь акции "Седьмого Континента"

9 декабря 2008 года

Акция:

SCON, СедьмКонт

Аналитик:

Ю Би Эс Банк

Slowing growth

Cutting 2009-10E adjusted earnings by 20%-50%. We are cutting EPS adjusted '09-10E by 20%-50% in dollar terms to reflect: (i) new macro and currency forecasts; (ii) more conservative expansion plans, the trend of trading-down, which results in slowing sales and deteriorating margins; and (iii) a higher cost of debt. We use a WACC of 15.4%-16.1%, incl. a CoE of 17%-18% & CoD of 13%.

Magnit (Buy, PT $33/local share) is our top-pick in the sector.…due to its low-cost/low price model, which might ensure sustainability of traffic inflows and margins; below average leverage (most of which is denominated in the local currency); the lack of expensive acquisitions conducted previously, which reduces the probability of write-offs and increases earnings predictability. MGNT is trading at a discount to its peers @7x P/E'09E.

We also rate X5 (PT $10/GDR) & Dixy (PT $3.4/share) Buys. We are concerned about X5 & Dixy's earnings predictability b/c of high exposure to foreign currency debt => large FX losses due to the weakening Ruble. We are also concerned about potential write-offs of some previous X5 acquisitions & corporate governance issues for Dixy. However, both stocks have underperformed the Russian market YTD and we believe they represent good value.

We reiterate our Sell rating on Seventh Continent (PT $5.2/local share). The company keeps disappointing on the execution/expansion front, while its exposure to high-end customers makes it the most vulnerable among its peers amid a consumer slowdown. We see potential upside to the stock in the case that there is a change in shareholder ownership to a strong strategic partner - SCON's core shareholder received a margin call on his pledged stake and will most likely be forced to sell it to refinance the loan.

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