"Открытие Капитал": Alliance Oil Company – concerns remain ahead of 2Q12 IFRS report // ДЕРЖАТЬ
16 августа 2012 года
Alliance Oil Company will report its 2Q12 IFRS report on 21 August. Similarly to other Russian oil producers, we expect a weak quarter driven by a combination of a 7% YoY decline in the oil price, lagged export duties and currency volatility. AOIL has already preannounced its operating statistics, so we expect little deviation to our 2Q12 revenue estimate of $779mn, down 1% YoY. We believe the EBITDA margin will shrink to 19% (vs 27% in 1Q12), resulting in EBITDA of $148mn, down 32% QoQ (although up 20% YoY). With our expectations of net interest expense of $18.7mn, currency loss of $25.0mn and an effective tax rate of 20%, we calculate AOIL will report 2Q12 PBT and Net Income of $53.6mn and $40.4mn, representing YoY decline rates of 30% and 25%, respectively.
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