"Ю Би Эс Банк" рекомендует покупать акции "Комстар ОТС", потенциал роста - более 300%
8 декабря 2008 года
Management meeting: drivers in crisis
Ready to benefit in crisis. CEO Sergey Pridantsev believes that having low ruble-denominated debt, defensive, healthy, cash generating MGTS's business, and launched LD services, Comstar is well-equipped to strengthen after the crisis, which should eliminate small players on the market and cut M&A prices in 2009. Comstar could use its 14% in treasury shares to acquire regional ISPs and backbone operators to enhance and unite its regional operations. STREAM-TV's network upgrade will simplify regional expansion. MGTS business still offers room for cost-cutting.
Downside to the management's FY09 max capex guidance of $360 mn. The key elements of the FY09 capex mix include (1) MGTS minimum maintenance of $50 mn; (2) IMS technology implementation of $20 mn; (3) STREAM-TV's upgrade of $45 mn, in sum give $115 mn. It is significantly below the official management guidance of max $360 mn vs. UBSe FY09 $230 mn.
Watching Svyazinvest's case resolution. According to newswires, the government has started considering "quasi" non-cash consolidation of 100% in Svyazinvest. Comstar could try to swap its 25% stake for (1) netting its $1 bn debt to Sberbank; (2) getting a 28% stake in MGTS; (3) acquiring control in Moscow FTTB ISP Central Telegraph. The deal would resolve uncertainty with Comstar money frozen in Svyazinvest, cut its debt, interest costs.
STREAM-TV operations to be incorporated. Our $10.5 DCF-based TP does not currently reflect the new Russian macro forecast published today. We intend to review our forecasts and valuation, also incorporating STREAM-TV's financials, which will be consolidated since FY09. Meanwhile, although uncertainty remains, any progress with Comstar's 25% stake in Svyazinvest could become a driver for the stock
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