"ВТБ Капитал": Uralkali: reloaded // ДЕРЖАТЬ
2 августа 2011 года
Reinitiating with a Hold recommendation. We are reinitiating our coverage of Uralkali with a Hold recommendation. Our view that the share price has limited potential to grow is supported by both DCF (8% upside potential to our 12-month Target Price of $53,8) and the rich multiples: the stock trades with premiums of 7–21% to its major rival, PotashCorp, based on 2012–2013 EV/EBITDA.
Pricing is the major risk. Uralkali’s model, as does any other, shows the greatest sensitivity to prices. Higher than expected crop (and, hence, potash) prices would send our cash flow forecasts above current levels, while a decrease in grain prices would prevent our forecasts being met.
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