"Открытие Капитал": "Tatneft" – 1Q12 US GAAP results preview // ПОКУПАТЬ
15 июня 2012 года
Tatneft will report its 1Q12 US GAAP results on Monday 18 June. This will be the first time that the results will include the full-quarter contribution from the recently launched TANECO refinery, although the positive effect from its first-time consolidation will be offset by pressure on domestic oil products pricing during 1Q12 and relatively low utilization rates (although the company said in April that these have since improved to above 90%). We forecast that Tatneft will report a 14% YoY increase in revenues to RUB 150.2bn, driven by a 13% increase in the oil price and flat crude output. TANECO production will have displaced some of crude sales and purchased oil products, so its main positive effect will be on the EBITDA margin, which we expect will improve to 25% (vs 23%) in 1Q11, resulting in 26% growth in reported EBITDA to RUB 38.0bn, on our estimates. With estimated net financial gains of RUB 114mn and an effective tax rate of 20%, we calculate Tatneft will report PBT and Net Income of RUB 33.0bn and RUB 26.0, representing YoY growth rates of 3% and 6%, respectively. After estimated capex of RUB 12.7bn, we calculate Tatneft will have generated FCF of RUB 17.3bn, causing a 23% QoQ reduction in net debt to RUB 54.4bn as of the end of 1Q12.
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