"Открытие Капитал": NovaTEK – 2Q12 IFRS results preview // ДЕРЖАТЬ

9 августа 2012 года

Акция:

NVTK, Новатэк

Аналитик:

АО "Открытие Брокер"

NOVATEK said that it will report its 2Q12 IFRS results tomorrow, 10 August. Similar to other Russian oil & gas producers, we expect this will be a weak quarter for NovaTEK, driven by an unfavourable combination of lower crude and condensate prices, the lag in export duty and currency losses due to a weaker ruble. We forecast NovaTEK’s revenues will grow 10.8% YoY (but decline 17.4% QoQ) to RUB44,950mn mostly driven by a 15.7% YoY increase in gas output, which is offset by a 6.5% YoY decline in the oil price. We estimate the company’s EBITDA margin will weaken slightly to 45% (vs 46% in 1Q12 and 49% in 2Q11), leading to 1.9% YoY growth (but a 18.6% QoQ drop) in reported EBITDA to RUB20,445mn. With estimated currency loss of RUB5,174mn, net interest expense of RUB717mn and an effective tax rate of 20%, we estimate NovaTEK will report 2Q12 PBT and net income of RUB12,009mn and RUB9,607mn, respectively, representing corresponding YoY decline rates of 33.8% and 33.4%.

• PDF  210 КБ