"Ю Би ЭС Банк" оставил в силе рекомендацию "Покупать" по акциям "Комстар-ОТС"
7 апреля 2009 года
OIBDA margin set to slip seasonally, net margin to recover
The results (due on 9 April) will be heavily impacted by the ruble devaluation. Revenues are to drop by 10% q-o-q to $378 mn, along with a 14% q-o-q drop in the adjusted OIBDA to $159 mn, implying a 2 ppt. q-o-q decrease in the adjusted OIBDA margin to 41.9%. Access Industries’s option revaluation should not affect P&L, resulting in 52% q-o-q net income growth to $56 mn. We see no significant forex effect, as Comstar’s debt is largely rubles based. Moscow broadband ARPU should recover after a seasonally weak 3Q08.
Management guidance possible on FY09e capex; less likely on P&L
We do not exclude the possibility of management commenting on FY09e capex; we expect it to be significantly below the previous maximum guidance of $360 mn (vs. UBSe $200 mn), given the minimum $50 mn maintenance capex. Any explicit top line and profitability forecasts are less likely given the economic uncertainty, in our view.
News on Svyazinvest asset swap, MTS-Comstar merger could be a trigger
Any comments on the prospects of a Svyazinvest asset swap could be a trigger for the stock (please see our report “Cheap, resilient, with restructuring triggers”, published on 2 April). To participate in the conference call: UK/international: +44(0)2071901595, US: +1(480)6291990. To replay: UK/ International: +44(0)2071542833, US: +1(303)5903030, access number 4050014#.
$ 5.3 PT at WACC of 16.5%, 30% discount to Svyazinvests stake’s Mcap
Comstar’s 2010e EV/OIBDA of 2.5 is below the EMEA average of 3.7. Valuing Comstar’s telecom arm on 2009-11e EMEA P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples reveals an 81% average discount to the current value of Comstar’s effective 22% stake in Svyazinvest ($1 bn). Our price target is based on DCF valuation.
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