"Открытие Капитал": Petropavlovsk: 1H11E financial results preview // ПОКУПАТЬ
24 августа 2011 года
We expect strong 1H11E financial results that will look solid compared to the 1H10 financials (and also better than the 2H10 financials). 1H11E attributable gold production was 219 koz – up substantially from a weak 1H10 base (166 koz). The Pioneer mine was responsible for 53% of 1H11E attributable gold production. During 1H11, the company sold 266 koz of gold at an average realized gold price of $1,455/oz, which is 71% higher in volume than in 1H10 (when 155 koz of gold was sold at an average realized price of $1,154/oz). Gold sold in 1H11 was 47 koz greater than 1H11 production due to gold in circuit from 2010 becoming available for sale.
Revenue for 1H11E is forecast at $436 mn, up 122% YoY on higher gold sales volumes and higher prices. 1H11E EBITDA is projected at $168 mn, up 236% YoY – which implies and EBITDA margin of 39% for the half year (up substantially from 26% for 1H10). Net income is projected at $76 mn (up from negative $20m in 1H10).
We expect a substantial jump in total cash costs of production: an increase to over $700/oz in 1H11E, versus a TCC of $538/oz for 1H10 – on lower average grades, higher material & labor costs and ruble appreciation. However, we forecast the company’s cash margin (realized price minus total cash costs) to have increased to $750/oz in 1H11E, up 22% YoY from $616/oz in 1H10.
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