"Открытие Капитал": Bank St. Petersburg: 3Q11E to reflect tighter markets \\ ПОКУПАТЬ
30 ноября 2011 года
Bank St. Petersburg is expected to release its 3Q11 IFRS results on Friday, December 2. We expect net profit to halve QoQ due to losses in securities and higher provisioning, and ROE of 15%.
NIM to moderate. We expect the bank’s NIM to return to the 5.3% level compared to 5.7% in 2Q11 because of the relatively short portfolio maturity, and as the company has guided, the 2Q11 improvement was a positive surprise rather than a trend. We forecast moderate loan growth of 2% QoQ.
Higher provisions. While we do not expect deterioration in the bank’s credit quality yet, we believe the greater economic uncertainty should push for higher risk cost. Thus despite strong 195% NPL coverage with provisions at Bank St. Petersburg, we forecast a 2.5x QoQ increase in provisioning charges.
Trading losses, one-off dividend. We believe that the bank’s trading securities portfolio, accounting for 16% of assets, has caused losses that could not have been offset by FX gains, and we forecast R650mn trading losses. However, the bank’s RAS result revealed R350mn of one-off dividend which we believe will also be reflected in the IFRS. Altogether, since 2Q11 also included a R879mn one-off gain, we forecast a 79% QoQ decline in non-interest revenues.
Costs. Bank St. Petersburg is one of the most efficient banks in terms of cost management, and will be able to address tighter markets with costs in our view. We forecast just a 1% QoQ cost increase.
Valuation. The stock trades at 2011E P/BV of 0.9 which in our view is attractive.
Bank St. Petersburg is expected to release its 3Q11 IFRS results on Friday, December 2. We expect net profit to halve QoQ due to losses in securities and higher provisioning, and ROE of 15%.
NIM to moderate. We expect the bank’s NIM to return to the 5.3% level compared to 5.7% in 2Q11 because of the relatively short portfolio maturity, and as the company has guided, the 2Q11 improvement was a positive surprise rather than a trend. We forecast moderate loan growth of 2% QoQ.
Higher provisions. While we do not expect deterioration in the bank’s credit quality yet, we believe the greater economic uncertainty should push for higher risk cost. Thus despite strong 195% NPL coverage with provisions at Bank St. Petersburg, we forecast a 2.5x QoQ increase in provisioning charges.
Trading losses, one-off dividend. We believe that the bank’s trading securities portfolio, accounting for 16% of assets, has caused losses that could not have been offset by FX gains, and we forecast R650mn trading losses. However, the bank’s RAS result revealed R350mn of one-off dividend which we believe will also be reflected in the IFRS. Altogether, since 2Q11 also included a R879mn one-off gain, we forecast a 79% QoQ decline in non-interest revenues.
Costs. Bank St. Petersburg is one of the most efficient banks in terms of cost management, and will be able to address tighter markets with costs in our view. We forecast just a 1% QoQ cost increase.
Valuation. The stock trades at 2011E P/BV of 0.9 which in our view is attractive.
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