"Открытие Капитал": OGK-2 – expect results to underperform consensus // ДЕРЖАТЬ
20 апреля 2012 года
OGK-2 is set to release its FY11 consolidated IFRS results on 24 April, the first time it report figures following the merger with OGK-6. In our view, the combination of weak growth in market electricity prices in 4Q11 (+3.6% YoY and -8% QoQ, on our estimates), an accident at the Troitskaya GRES, and escalating costs, could undermine OGK-2 profitability. We expect OGK-2 to be the worst performing entity among the OGKs, with an EBITDA margin of just 7.8% (vs. for example OGK-4, which led OGKs with 34%). As a result, we reaffirm our HOLD rating on the stock, with a target price of RUB1.08/share.
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