"Открытие Капитал": Bashneft – 1Q12 IFRS results preview // ДЕРЖАТЬ
25 мая 2012 года
Bashneft is expected to release its 1Q12 IFRS results on Tuesday (29 May). We anticipate revenue growth of 5% YoY to $4.3bn, driven mainly by 14% YoY oil price growth and the deconsolidation of Bashkirenergo. Bashneft remains primarily a downstream player, and the introduction of the 60-66-90 export duty regime from 1 October 2011 had a negative effect on the company's economics. We think this resulted in a lower EBITDA margin of 19% (vs. 21% in 1Q11), implying EBITDA of $740mn (-14% YoY). The decrease in the effective interest rate and the effects of a 1Q11 one-off currency devaluation have contributed to a decline in the company’s financial costs to $77mn, leading to pre-tax income staying flat YoY at $530mn, we expect. Applying an effective tax rate of 20%, we forecast net income to amount to $394mn (up 7% YoY), with the increase largely resulting from a lower effective tax rate as compared to 2011.
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