"Открытие Капитал": Nord Gold 1Q12 financial results preview // ПОКУПАТЬ
29 мая 2012 года
Sberbank is slated to release its 1Q12 IFRS results on 30 May. We anticipate good growth in net interest income (+5% QoQ), but a decline in fee income (-10% QoQ) due to the slower season, and flat operating expenses (we are more conservative than the consensus on expenses). However, previsioning will likely help boost the bottom line, as we expect Sberbank to roughly repeat the seasonal pattern of its provisions release from last year, thus resulting in a significantly lower provisioning charge QoQ. This will yield a net profit of RUB 80.4bn, on our estimates – up 35% QoQ, but down 8% YoY (the consensus is 9% higher, mostly due to the lower mean forecast for expenses). Loan growth will likely follow the RAS reporting closely (slow in the corporate segment, +2% YtD , and fast in the retail segment, +9.5% YtD , with a moderate increase in provisions, rendering them at 7.4% of gross loans. We anticipate Tier-1 CAR to widen to 12.0% (from 11.6% as of FY11) on the back of net profit.
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