"Открытие Капитал": TGK-1 – downgrade on expected weak 1H12 IFRS data // ДЕРЖАТЬ
24 августа 2012 года
TGK-1 is set to release its 1H12 results on 28 August. Due to lower electricity prices and underperformance in TGK-1’s hydro assets vs our previous assumptions, we have lowered our FY12 EBITDA forecast to RUB13.8bn (from RUB16.7bn) and net income to RUB4.2bn (from RUB6.1bn). We have also cut our forecasts beyond 2012. As a result, our DCF-derived target price drops 41% to RUB0.0093. For 1H12, we project revenue falling 9%, EBITDA down 30% and net income sliding 55%. Moreover we see management lowering its FY12 EBITDA guidance of RUB14.8bn. We thus downgrade the stock to HOLD from Buy.
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